ML 49: Target the Effect, Not the Risk
Disclosure: this post was written with the assistance of an AI system (Claude), which wrote the analysis code, ran the experiments and drafted the text. The topic, the constraints, the data choices and the final review are the author’s. A simulated retention offer, a randomised trial behind it and a budget for 20% of customers. Offering it to the highest predicted churners prevented 20.1 to 22.0 churns per 1,000 customers, about what random targeting prevented (21....