The Chip Cycle Is Forecastable. The Shortage Is a Different Question.
Disclosure: this post was written with the assistance of an AI system (Claude), which wrote the analysis code, ran the experiments and drafted the text. The topic, the constraints, the data choices and the final review are the author’s. Memory is short, and the statements being made about it run to years. So I built the loop that generates the cycle — supply responds to price with a lag, inventory integrates the imbalance, price responds to inventory — and tried to measure how far ahead it can be forecast....