ML 39: The Applicants You Refused Are the Data You Do Not Have
Disclosure: this post was written with the assistance of an AI system (Claude), which wrote the analysis code, ran the experiments and drafted the text. The topic, the constraints, the data choices and the final review are the author’s. Simulated applicants, half accepted by an old policy, outcomes observed only for the accepted. When the policy used only the model’s features, a correctly specified model predicted a default rate of 0....