Conformal-Prediction on The Standard Errorhttps://jongha-jeon-dev.github.io/standarderror/tags/conformal-prediction/Recent content in Conformal-Prediction on The Standard ErrorHugo -- 0.123.7en-gbThu, 08 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000Coverage 1: 90% Coverage Is a Promise About Averages, Not About Youhttps://jongha-jeon-dev.github.io/standarderror/lectures/coverage-1-marginal/Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://jongha-jeon-dev.github.io/standarderror/lectures/coverage-1-marginal/Conformal prediction's guarantee is exact, distribution-free and finite-sample, and it is an average over the test distribution. Conditioned on the model's own confidence it runs from 82% to 95% - and then it turns out that the unevenness is the score's fault, not the method's.Coverage 5: The Split You Chose Is Hiding How Variable Your Coverage Ishttps://jongha-jeon-dev.github.io/standarderror/lectures/coverage-5-split/Thu, 08 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://jongha-jeon-dev.github.io/standarderror/lectures/coverage-5-split/Episode 1 promised an error bar wider than exchangeability allows. Most of that was my formula. What is left appears only when you split the way a deployment does.