Analytics on The Standard Errorhttps://jongha-jeon-dev.github.io/standarderror/tags/analytics/Recent content in Analytics on The Standard ErrorHugo -- 0.123.7en-gbFri, 07 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000I Trained 2,000 Models on a Coin Flip and the Best One Looked Greathttps://jongha-jeon-dev.github.io/standarderror/posts/i-trained-2000-models-on-a-coin-flip/Fri, 07 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://jongha-jeon-dev.github.io/standarderror/posts/i-trained-2000-models-on-a-coin-flip/A 55.3% hit rate, a p-value of 0.0008, and not one shred of signal in the dataYour Forecast Is Probably Just Repeating Yesterdayhttps://jongha-jeon-dev.github.io/standarderror/posts/your-forecast-is-probably-just-repeating-yesterday/Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://jongha-jeon-dev.github.io/standarderror/posts/your-forecast-is-probably-just-repeating-yesterday/A model scores 99% on a series of coin flips. Here is why, and the one number that would have caught it